Expectation Anchor Bias – Don’t Let a First Impression have the Last Word

You are biased.  Yes, you are.  Even if you grew up in a family where diversity and inclusion were part of your basic values.  Even if you have actively supported organizations and causes that advocate for justice and fair treatment for all people.  Even if you reject all forms of prejudice and discrimination.  You are still biased.  It’s just how your brain works.  And it’s not just you.  It’s all of us.  Everyone.  We all have biases, most of which are unconscious biases that the brain uses as shortcuts to make fast decisions.  There are over 200 unconscious biases.  Some are more impactful than others.  But all biases share one common problem.  Bias distorts truth.  Bias makes you more inclined to process information and make decisions based on distortions and conclusions that are false.   Obviously, decisions based on false information can cause problems.  But this is especially true in business, where clarity and accuracy are key to the decision-making process. 

The ‘First Impression’ Problem

One unconscious bias that is particularly problematic in business precisely because of the way it distorts truth is Expectation Anchoring Bias.  This is an unconscious cognitive bias in which a person focuses on an initial fact, set point, belief or number, and makes decisions based on that initial information, to the point where additional pertinent information is ignored.  The person tends to rely on that initial piece of information, rather than gather data from other sets or sources.  There are some cases when people are especially susceptible to Expectation Anchoring Bias, such as when they have uncertainty about a situation.

You’ve probably heard the saying “You never get a second chance to make a first impression.”  The reason why that is true and also critically important is because of Expectation Anchoring Bias.  That initial piece of information – that first impression – is weighed more heavily in a person’s mind than any information gathered thereafter.  In fact, it often cancels out all information gathered thereafter.  That is true both for positive and negative impressions, whether they are on point or not. 

Expectation Anchoring Bias skews the ability to come to a logical conclusion, make an accurate estimate or select a suitable choice. Rather than viewing additional information objectively, anyone experiencing Expectation Anchoring Bias compares new information back to their reference point (the initial impression), which may not always be an accurate representation.  

Here is a simple example to illustrate how it works.  If, while shopping, a person sees a sculpture that costs $12,000 and then see a second one that costs $3,000, that person is prone to see the second sculpture as “cheap.”  But, what if the person learned that most sculptures at other galleries ranged in price from $1,000 to $4,000, would the $3,000 seem ‘cheap”?  The problem with Expectation Anchoring Bias is that the person looking at the $3,000 sculpture might not even shop around to see how much other sculptures cost at other galleries.  And, even if he did shop around, he might actually think that the sculptures at other galleries weren’t as good (pretty; well made; quality materials) as the ones at the first gallery.   He would look for reasons to reject or ignore the additional information gathered after that first impression.  First impression creates the expectation and that leaves an indelible impression. 

Now consider the impact that Expectation Anchoring Bias can have on the hiring process. Recruiting and hiring is a situation that is fraught with uncertainty and challenges.  In hiring, Expectation Anchor Bias is often involved when the hiring manager or recruiter anchors onto one certain piece of information about a candidate, company or role and uses it to make decisions.  According to Jonathan David Haidt, American social psychologist, author and Professor of Ethical Leadership at New York University’s Stern School of Business, we are all programmed to make instantaneous judgments about people and then to either look for evidence to justify our judgment or ignore any information that refutes that judgment.  In the recruiting process, that can really cause havoc because there are so many variables at play when candidates are being considered for a position. 

Case in point.  What if a major Real Estate firm was hiring a new Director of Marketing?  The applicant tracking system (ATS) narrowed the pool of 150 applicants to the top 20 candidates, and the HR manager narrowed that to the top 10 candidates based on level of education, industry experience, job stability, etc.  Of those, one candidate was asking a salary of $80,000 a year, one candidate was asking for $150,000 a year and all the rest of the candidates were seeking salaries of $100,000 to $120,000.  If the Hiring Manager interviewed the candidate asking the lower salary first, that initial impression might cause him to feel that the rest the applicants were looking for too much money and would likely hire the first candidate.  On the other hand, if that were reversed and the first applicant asked for $150,000, and all but one of the rest of the candidates were asking for $100,000 to $120,000 of salary, the hiring manager might feel that the first candidate was more qualified simply because he asked for a higher salary, despite all of the data that indicated he might be overpriced.  Thanks to Expectation Anchoring Bias, the first candidate interviewed sets the bar for what to expect from everyone else, regarding salary, bonus, benefits and qualifications.  Recruiters know this and use this when they present candidates to a client looking to hire for a position.  HR Managers also know this and use it when they introduce candidates to the hiring manager.  Even knowing that Expectation Anchoring Bias exists doesn’t completely stop it from happening.

So how do we overcome Expectation Anchoring Bias?  After all, it is impossible not to have expectations.  We are wired to process information and then calculate what might happen next.  We create strong beliefs that something will happen or be the case in the future.  This is an automatic part of our brain’s executive functions.  If those expectations cause us to reach false assumptions and reach incorrect conclusions or assumptions, then how can we counteract that?  After all, all of that processing is happening automatically and unconsciously.  In fact, Elliot Abrams, Former United States Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs, once said that “First impressions matter. Experts say we size up new people in somewhere between 30 seconds and two minutes.”  In two minutes, we form an opinion of a person and craft expectations that then tip the scales and can even cause us to ignore all other information.

So how do we recognize and interrupt Expectation Anchoring Bias?

1. As always, admitting there is a problem is the first step.  The more we convince ourselves about how unbiased we are, the more of a blind spot we may have when it comes to recognizing our own implicit biases.
   
   For those who are sure they are unbiased, one place to start is by taking Harvard University’s Project Implicit tests.  These on-line tests are designed to measure implicit (unconscious) biases in about 28 different categories.  You may not like or agree with the results.  They might even shock you.  But these tests have been scientifically validated. 
   
   
2. First impressions take 30 minutes to dissipate, so in an interview use the first half hour to collect data rather than make judgments.
   
   
3. Use reverse logic to reprogram the brain from Expectation Anchoring Bias.  When meeting a candidate for the first time, note whether you like the person or not. Then, do the opposite of what you’d normally do. For those you like, force them to prove their competency. Give the benefit of the doubt to those you dislike.  Or, to be even more unbiased, ask everyone the same questions.  And, use a 1-5 ranking system to evaluate questions objectively.
   
   
4. Acknowledge that “trusting your gut” may feed into Expectation Anchoring Bias.  Remember that the messages from our gut are based on an initial fact, set point, belief or number, and all decisions based on that initial information might be flawed because it has likely ignored other additional pertinent information.  So ignore your “gut.”  Focus on how you formed your opinion about the person.  Ask yourself if you’re taking all the information into consideration. 
   
   
5. Studies suggest you are most at risk of making a decision that is the result of Expectation Anchoring Bias if you are tired, pressured, or stressed. While you may not be able to control how much sleep you got or how much stress you feel, you can control when and how quickly you make a decision.  Don’t do it at the end of the day when you’ve got Decision Fatigue or you are tired and acting in haste. 
   
   
6. Not only should you identify and interrupt your own biases, you should also be willing and able to spot and interrupt bias in colleagues.  This is probably the most difficult and the most uncomfortable part of overcoming bias.  The challenge to determine when to say something, how to say it, and to whom.  Never address a bias in front of others.  Talk privately, and point out how a particular piece of information might be slanting viewpoints.  It is important to point out Expectation Anchoring Bias before it causes significant problems for the organization.
   
   
7. Try to be aware of your initial thoughts about a person and upon what those thoughts are truly based.
   
   
8. Surround yourself with a diverse mix of cultural and social situations and individuals.  This ensures that other viewpoints can cancel out Expectation Anchoring Bias.

Perhaps rather than going with your gut or being guided by first impressions, one might consider the old adage:  “Don’t judge a book by its cover.”  The cover is the first impression.  But first may not be best.  That cover may not reveal the amazing story within.  Take the time to dig, be objective and try to be impartial when hiring.  The person you least expect – and it might be the last person you interview – might be the best hire you ever make.

Quote of the Week

“People are more than their first impressions. And even if someone seems this way or that way, it doesn’t mean they’re not a three-dimensional person, with a real life.” Mary Wiseman

© 2022, Keren Peters-Atkinson. All rights reserved.